Statistically Speaking - Week Eight

Forget the statistics for this week. One thing and one thing only is on the minds of coaches, players and fans; our two-game skid. But I'm a glass-is-half-full type of guy, so let me attempt to lift the spirits and shed some hope on the remainder of the season.

Believe it or not, we can still be ODAC champions and/or play in the NCAA playoffs.

Let me examine the ODAC champs part first.

To be the outright ODAC champions, we would of course have to win our three remaining games to finish 4-2 in the conference. That would include a win over current undefeated and ODAC front-runner Washington & Lee. We would then need Emory & Henry to beat W&L on November 4 to give the Generals a 4-2 ODAC record as well. Then we need E&H to lose to both Catholic (Oct. 28) and Guilford (Nov. 11) to give the Wasps a 3-3 ODAC record. And finally, Guilford would need to lose to either Randolph-Macon (Oct. 28) or Catholic (Nov. 4) which would leave them at 3-3 in the ODAC. So for us to be the outright ODAC champs, a ton of things have to happen.

We can also share the ODAC title any number of ways. Again, we would have to win the rest of our games to finish 4-2. After that, E&H would still have to defeat W&L to force them to 4-2. And then if one or more of H-SC, E&H, Guilford and Catholic finish 4-2, there is a chance there will be a three- (or four-) way tie for the conference championship.

Now let's take a look at the playoff possibilities.

Slim, yes, but as shown above, if we win the ODAC title outright, that will be our ticket to the postseason. If we share the conference championship with two or more teams, then one of the other teams would most likely get the automatic bid to the NCAA playoffs as the ODAC representative seeing that this conference uses what is called the "Rose Bowl" rule. If the tie-breaking goes all the way to the so-called Rose Bowl rule, then the automatic bid is awarded to the team who has not appeared in the NCAA Division III playoffs most recently. Which means Bridgewater would be at the end of the list;

W&L - has never gone to D3 playoffs
Guilford - has never gone to D3 playoffs
HSC - last went in 1977
RMC - last went in 1984
Catholic - last went in 1999
E&H - last went in 2000
Bridgewater - last went in 2005

Don't worry. Our only chance at the NCAA playoffs isn't through winning the conference, seeing a lot has to happen for that to occur.

We can also get in by what's called an at-large bid. Using D3football.com's FAQs, let me briefly explain the Division III playoff selection criteria;

There are 32 spots in the tournament field. Automatic bids (known as "Pool A" bids) go to the champions of 21 conferences. There are four bids set aside solely for "Pool B" teams, that is, teams who are independents or in conferences without automatic bids. The leftover "Pool B" teams get dumped into "Pool C," and those teams get considered for the remaining seven bids.

In other words, if Bridgewater were to finish 8-2 and not win the ODAC, then they will be considered for one of the seven "Pool C" bids.

Even though it seems like a long shot to earn an at-large "Pool C" bid to the playoffs with an 8-2 record, keep in mind that last year there were two teams (Wilkes at 8-2 and Cortland State at 7-2) that earned "Pool C" bids with two losses.

Sure, we've made it much harder on ourselves than in years past with our two losses the last two weeks. But one thing we can't do is think this season is all for not at this point. Forget for a moment at there even being a chance at being ODAC champs and/or making the playoffs. How about the chance to say (if W&L ends up winning the ODAC outright) that we were the only team to defeat the ODAC champs in 2006? What about sending our 19 seniors out on a three-game winning streak and a 39-7 career record? How about reinstating our ODAC dominance we've shown the last five years into next season?

If we can do all that, then we might have an opportunity to play deep into November. Sure, the chances are close to none. But close to none is better than none. And if we don't win the next three games, then we don't allow for the chance at all.