Statistically Speaking - Week Nine

Our 27-8 win over Washington & Lee last week certainly helped our cause - even if it was just to vindicate that we're still a dominant force in the ODAC and the country.

Let me once again breakdown our chances for an ODAC title and the postseason.

With Emory & Henry squeaking by Catholic last week 31-27, that eliminated the chance for the Eagles to be the outright champion and earn the automatic bid to the NCAA playoffs. But there is a very realistic scenario remaining that would force a five-way tie in the conference standings in which Bridgewater would share the ODAC crown...

If the following happens over the next two weeks;

November 4, 2006
Bridgewater defeats Randolph-Macon
Guilford defeats Catholic
Emory & Henry defeats Washington & Lee

November 11, 2006
Bridgewater defeats Catholic
Guilford defeats Emory & Henry
Hampden-Sydney defeats Randolph-Macon

Then these would be the final standings:

1) BC 4-2
1) E&H 4-2
1) GC 4-2
1) H-SC 4-2
1) W&L 4-2
6) CUA 1-5
7) R-MC 0-6

To determine the conference champion, the league then takes a look at the head-to-head records of the tied teams at the top. All five 4-2 teams would have a 2-2 record:

BC beat H-SC and W&L
E&H beat BC and W&L
GC beat BC and E&H
H-SC beat E&H and GC
W&L beat GC and H-SC

Thus, all five schools - including Bridgewater - would be named ODAC champions.

To determine who earns the automatic bid to the NCAA playoffs, the conference manual says they would then go to a five-point tiebreaker, which I won't explain because it ends up leaving all five schools still tied. So then the ODAC goes to the "Rose Bowl" rule which awards the automatic bid to the team who has not appeared in the NCAA Division III playoffs most recently. Both Guilford and Washington & Lee have never been, and because W&L defeated Guilford a couple weeks ago, the Generals would get the ODAC's automatic bid.

Now as far as the Eagles' chances of an at-large bid to the postseason - that's a lot less likely, unless a lot of unlikely things occur across the country. Let me try to explain...

Assuming the current front-runners of the 21 conferences who earn automatic bids end up winning out, then here is the list of the 39 schools with two or less regional losses that would be considered for the remaining 11 playoffs spots(listed to the right of each school is their quality of wins index (QoWi), their regional record, their overall record, and the games they have remaining):

Alfred 9.625 6-2, 6-2 (vs 7-1 Ithaca, vs 8-1 St. John Fisher)
Baldwin-Wallace 9.500 6-2, 6-2 (at 4-4 Otterbein, vs 7-1 Capital)
Bethel 10.500 7-1, 7-1 (vs 0-8 Augsburg, at 9-0 St. John's)
Bridgewater St. 8.875 6-2, 6-2 (vs 3-5 Mass.-Maritime)
Bridgewater 8.625 6-2, 6-2 (at 2-6 Randolph-Macon, at 3-5 Catholic)
Cal Lutheran 8.143 5-2, 5-2 (vs 2-5 Pomona-Pitzer, at 3-4 Redlands)
Capital 11.250 7-1, 7-1 (vs 1-7 Muskingum, at 6-2 Baldwin-Wallace)
Carnegie Mellon 10.286 7-0, 8-0 (vs 4-4 Bethany, at 4-4 Thiel)
Carthage 8.500 6-2, 6-2 (vs 7-1 Wheaton, at 6-2 North Central)
Christopher Newport 9.429 6-1, 6-2 (vs 6-2 Averett, vs 2-5 Ferrum)
Coast Guard 10.125 7-1, 7-1 (vs 1-7 Framingham State, vs 9-0 Curry)
Coe 9.250 6-2, 6-2 (vs 8-0 Central, at 2-6 Cornell)
Defiance 9.250 6-2, 6-2 (vs 7-1 Franklin, at 3-5 Bluffton)
Delaware Valley 9.125 6-2, 6-2 (vs 1-7 Juniata, at 6-2 Widener)
Franklin 9.625 7-1, 7-1 (at 6-2 Defiance, vs 3-5 Hanover)
Greenville 8.571 5-2, 5-3 (vs 2-7 Concordia (Ill.), at 5-4 Washington U.)
Hardin-Simmons 11.143 6-1, 6-1 (at 5-3 Texas Lutheran, vs 3-6 McMurry)
Ithaca 9.286 6-1, 7-1 (at 6-2 Alfred, at 8-0 Cortland State)
Linfield 10.200 4-1, 5-2 (vs 8-0 Whitworth, at 0-7 Lewis and Clark)
Puget Sound 8.500 6-2, 6-2 (vs 3-5 Menlo, at 8-0 Whitworth)
Rochester 8.714 5-2, 6-2 (vs 5-2 RPI, at 7-0 Hobart)
Rockford 9.625 7-1, 7-2 (at 3-5 Colorado College)
Rowan 9.000 4-1, 5-2 (vs 8-0 Cortland State, vs 1-7 William Paterson)
RPI 8.286 5-2, 5-2 (at 6-2 Rochester, vs 6-1 Union)
Springfield 11.375 7-1, 7-1 (vs 3-5 Hartwick, at 2-6 Norwich)
St. Olaf 8.714 5-2, 6-2 (vs 4-4 Carleton, at 5-3 St. Thomas)
Sul Ross St. 9.500 4-2, 5-2 (vs 3-4 Louisiana Col., at 4-4 Mississippi Col.)
Union 10.286 6-1, 6-1 (at 7-0 Hobart, at 5-2 RPI)
Ursinus 7.833 4-2, 6-2 (at 3-5 Frankling & Marshall, vs 7-1 Dickinson)
UW-La Crosse 9.800 4-1, 6-1 (vs 3-5 UW-River Falls, at 4-4 UW-Oshkosh)
UW-Platteville 9.857 5-2, 5-3 (at 4-4 UW-Stevens Point, vs 2-6 UW-Eau Claire)
Wartburg 10.625 7-1, 7-1 (vs 2-6 Cornell, vs 4-4 Dubuque)
Washington and Jefferson 9.429 6-1, 7-1 (vs 5-3 Thomas More, at 4-4 Bethany)
Wesley 11.400 5-0, 8-0 (vs Chowan, vs 1-7 Morrisville State)
Wheaton 10.750 7-1, 7-1 (at 6-2 Carthage, vs 3-5 Illinois Wesleyan)
Whitworth 9.429 7-0, 8-0 (at 5-2 Linfield, vs 6-2 Puget Sound)
Widener 9.000 6-2, 6-2 (vs 3-5 Salisbury, vs 6-2 Delaware Valley)
Wittenberg 10.286 5-2, 5-3 (vs 5-3 Allegheny, at 0-8 Hiram)
Wooster 10.000 6-2, 6-2 (vs 3-5 Earlham, at 4-4 Kenyon)

The QoWi and regional record are two of the most important pieces of criteria the NCAA selection committee considers. And as you can see, there are 33 teams with a better QoWi and 19 with a better regional record than Bridgewater. So with two weeks remaining, things aren't looking good. But, there are two weeks remaining, which means those teams listed above could lose. And as you can also see, many of those teams play each other.

So in summary, for the Eagles to have any shot at the postseason, they would need to (1) win out and (2) have a lot of those teams listed above lose.